US President 2028 Polls: Every Survey Ranked and Explained

The Republican primary has been the most dramatically shifting polling story of the 2026 cycle. What began as a commanding lead for Vice President JD Vance has turned into a near-dead heat with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Emerson College Polling — May 2026 (Republican Primary)

Sample: 950 likely Republican primary voters | Margin of error: ±3.2%

• JD Vance: 35%
• Marco Rubio: 35%
• Ron DeSantis: 5%
• Nikki Haley: 5%
• Other / Undecided: 20%

This is the most recent major Republican primary poll and shows a dramatic transformation from August 2025, when Vance led at 40% with Rubio in single digits. The shift reflects Rubio's elevated national profile from managing the Iran crisis as Secretary of State.

Emerson College Polling — February 2026 (Republican Primary)

Sample: 900 likely Republican primary voters | Margin of error: ±3.3%

• JD Vance: 52%
• Marco Rubio: 20%
• Ron DeSantis: 6%
• Nikki Haley: 3%

This February snapshot shows the state of the race before the Iran conflict escalation — Vance with a comfortable majority and Rubio beginning his climb.

Emerson College Polling — August 2025 (Republican Primary)

Sample: 800 likely Republican primary voters | Margin of error: ±3.5%

• JD Vance: 40%
• RFK Jr.: 10%
• Ron DeSantis: 9%
• Marco Rubio: 4%

Democratic Primary Polling: A Wide Open Field

The Democratic primary polling tells a fundamentally different story from the Republican side — one of genuine uncertainty and a field where any of five to seven candidates could plausibly emerge as the nominee.

Emerson College Polling — May 2026 (Democratic Primary)

Sample: 950 likely Democratic primary voters | Margin of error: ±3.2%

• Pete Buttigieg: 18%
• Gavin Newsom: 16%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%
• Josh Shapiro: 10%
• Kamala Harris: 10%
• Andy Beshear: 9%
• Bernie Sanders: 4%
• Gretchen Whitmer: 4%
• Wes Moore: 3%
• Undecided / Other: 15%

Emerson College Polling — February 2026 (Democratic Primary)

Sample: 900 likely Democratic primary voters | Margin of error: ±3.3%

• Gavin Newsom: 20%
• Pete Buttigieg: 16%
• Kamala Harris: 13%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9%
• Josh Shapiro: 7%
• Andy Beshear: 5%

Emerson College Polling — August 2025 (Democratic Primary)

Sample: 800 likely Democratic primary voters | Margin of error: ±3.5%

• Gavin Newsom: 23%
• Pete Buttigieg: 17%
• Kamala Harris: 11%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9%
• Andy Beshear: 5%
• Josh Shapiro: 4%

Head-to-Head General Election Matchups

General election polling at this stage is highly volatile and should be read as a snapshot of current name recognition and sentiment rather than a reliable prediction of November 2028 outcomes. With that caveat, the available matchup polling shows competitive races across the board.

Vance vs. Newsom (August 2025 — Emerson)

• JD Vance: 44%
• Gavin Newsom: 44%
• Undecided: 12%

Vance vs. Buttigieg (May 2026 — Emerson)

• JD Vance: 47%
• Pete Buttigieg: 43%
• Undecided: 10%

Rubio vs. Newsom (May 2026 — Emerson)

• Marco Rubio: 46%
• Gavin Newsom: 43%
• Undecided: 11%

Rubio vs. Shapiro (May 2026 — Reuters/Ipsos)

• Marco Rubio: 45%
• Josh Shapiro: 44%
• Undecided: 11%

The tightest matchup in available polling — Shapiro's Pennsylvania crossover appeal makes him the most competitive Democrat against any Republican in current surveys.

Approval Ratings: The Numbers Behind the Candidates

Approval ratings matter in a presidential race because they reflect how voters who have already experienced a candidate in office evaluate their performance — a key data point when projecting how they might perform as president.

What the Polls Tell Us — And What They Don't

Two-years-out presidential polling has a mixed predictive track record. It is reasonably good at identifying who is in the conversation — but historically poor at predicting the nominee. In August 2005, Hillary Clinton led the 2008 Democratic primary polling by wide margins. In August 2015, Jeb Bush led the 2016 Republican primary polling. Neither won their party's nomination.

What the current polls tell us with reasonable confidence: this will be a competitive election, the Republican field has two credible frontrunners, the Democratic field is genuinely open, and the American electorate is engaged and paying attention even 26 months before election day.

Track all 2028 presidential polls in real time on TalkBea's Poll Tracker. See every candidate's full profile and platform on our Candidates page.